WP1

Objectives

WP 1 focuses on the development of a forecast of tourism numbers and geographical distribution in the near and mid-term future. The three main objectives of WP1 are:

1. Forecast tourism visitor numbers into the future for the near (5-10 years) and medium (20-30 years) term
2. Forecast potential distributional changes of tourism visitation to landing sites across the continent in the light of predicted climate impacts in the near to medium term
3. Bring together the number and distribution forecasts to better predict visitation pressure at different sites in the near to medium term

Methodology

Forecasts will be developed using a series of spatially explicit modelling methods incorporating past Antarctic visitation records (IAATO data), environmental, biological and economic factors, climate change projections for the near and medium term, and several assumptions concerning tourism growth based on projections for the specific Antarctic sector (e.g., Hughes and Convey 2020, IAATO, 2021b, Nielsen et al., 2022), and those for tourism globally (Benjamin et al. 2020). Specifically:

1. Future visitation rates can be forecast using quantitative, spatially explicit models incorporating historic trends,economic proxies (e.g. distance travelled, and fuel and other expedition costs), and expectations for the development of new areas to be visited and forecasts for numbers. In part the latter can be sourced also through the tracking of new polar tourism ships coming online. Several modelling approaches will be adopted, including statistical forecasts and individual-based models (Johnson & Sieber 2010) of all actors in the Antarctic region (States’ Parties, Tourism companies, conservation science).
2. Forecasts of distributional changes can build on the work of Lee et al. (2019) incorporating climate projections and predicted changes to accessibility, as well as presence of tourist industry values (e.g. penguin colonies, historic sites) to predict where Antarctic tourism might spread to in the near to medium term.
3. IAATO activities data (providing numbers of visitors undertaking different activities, e.g. kayaking) can be used to better understand how activities might change or develop in popularly visited sites using qualitative modelling.

Productive interactions (co-design and co-creation)

This WP is dependent on long-term spatially explicit data from IAATO, forecasts based on their expectations for member activity growth, and discussion with other experts on expectations of tourism growth and diversification (spatially and in activity). Here, critical partners are IAATO for data provision and additional interpretation and the SCAR Ant-TAG for counterfactual scenarios out to 2050. Additional forecast data on climate change for the region can be obtained from appropriately scaled CMIP6 model outputs (acknowledging some difficulties still with the Antarctic Peninsula). In developing these models and collecting information Steven Chown will facilitate cooperation with IAATO, Stefan Hartman (NHL Stenden University) and experts involved in the SCAR Ant-TAG. Without these data, forecast models cannot be developed. With them the researchers here, including the post-doctoral associate, will then be able to deliver the expected outcomes for use in the other WPs. Strategic impact activities include engagement to obtain data, regular communication across stakeholders and WPs to ensure early outcomes are moderated and in line with general thinking as well as available for further application across the WPs, and regular QA & WQC to ensure that the data are error free and appropriately geolocated. Discussions with partners will enable capacity of the post-doctoral associate and researchers to expand into new areas and to be informed by transdisciplinary learning.