Research Questions

In the objectives we constitute the foundation for the formulation of the following research questions for the program, reflecting the topics of the above-described societal concerns and assumptions. The forecasts will reflect an assessment of both near-term growth and likely cumulative impacts, and medium-term growth (e.g. ca. 2050). The medium-term growth scenarios are especially significant given that 2048 represents 50 years of implementation of the Protocol’s requirements:

1. What are the forecast of tourism numbers and geographical distribution of tourism in Antarctica in the near term (e.g. 5-10 years) and medium term (20-30 years)? (WP1)
2. What are suitable indicators for representing Antarctic biodiversity and wilderness values, and where are the important terrestrial biodiversity hotspots and wilderness areas in Antarctica situated, differentiating between current state and expectations in the near and medium term with changing climate and human activity? (WP2)
3. Which (risks of) cumulative impacts on biodiversity and wilderness values in Antarctica may be identified in light of the outcomes of WP1 and WP2? (WP3)
4. What monitoring framework and components would facilitate the effective monitoring of biodiversity and wilderness values for Antarctica? (WP2 and WP3)
5. What are potential response strategies, particularly spatial strategies, to prevent or minimize further cumulative impacts on biodiversity and wilderness values by visitation and what regulatory instruments are available or could be developed in the ATS and/or Antarctic tourism sector (IAATO) for the implementation of the most promising strategies? (WP4)
6. Based on the answers to questions 1 and 4, what recommendations can be formulated for the Netherlands, the CEP, the ATCM and/or IAATO regarding spatial regulation of tourism and prioritisation of appropriate environmental monitoring in Antarctica?