UG economists predict: 'Netherlands to experience most successful Games ever in Tokyo'

UG economists Fabian ten Kate and Elmer Sterken predict that the Dutch Olympic team will have its most successful Olympic Games ever in Tokyo. According to Ten Kate and Sterken, the team will win 12 gold medals (just like in Sydney in 2000), 11 silver and 11 bronze ones. This would put the Netherlands in sixth place in the medal table, satisfying NOC*NSF’s aim of reaching the Top 10.

World Championship achievements

Ten Kate and Sterken have used an econometric model and base their predictions on the average success rates of Dutch athletes in World Championships over the past years for all 339 medal events that will take place at the Tokyo Olympics. They even included any ‘home advantage’ that athletes may enjoy.

Top countries

Ten Kate and Sterken predict that the United States, China and the host country Japan will head the medal table. The Top 10 will also include Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and South Korea.

Article: Fabian ten Kate and Elmer Sterken (2021), Medaillevoorspelling Tokio, Economisch Statistische Berichten.