Groningen economists predict Rio medal table: 8 Olympic golds for the Netherlands
The Dutch Olympic team will win 8 gold medals in Rio de Janeiro. At the Olympic Games this summer, the Dutch team will win 24 medals: 8 gold, 9 silver, and 7 bronze. That is the prediction of University of Groningen economists Fabian ten Kate, Gerard Kuper and Elmer Sterken, based on a scientific model. Ten Kate, Kuper and Sterken publish their prediction today in the economics journal Economisch Statistische Berichten.
The economists expect the Netherlands to finish 12th in the medal table. The battle for the top position in the middle table will be intense. Ten Kate, Kuper and Sterken predict that the United States will just pip China to the post.
Previous results and home advantage
Kuper and Sterken have been predicting the Olympic Games medal table since 2002. The Groningen model is based on previous Olympic results, home advantage and the world championship results of the relevant events. The differences between the predictions and the actual medal table can be very large. To date, the predictions for the London Games have been the best.
|
Predictions compared |
Gold | Silver | Bronze | Position medal table | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athens 2004 | prediction | 4 | 6 | 11 | 23rd |
| result | 4 | 9 | 9 | 18th | |
| Beijing 2008 | prediction | 4 | 7 | 9 | 18th |
| result | 7 | 5 | 4 | 12th | |
| London 2012 | prediction | 8 | 8 | 7 | 11th |
| result | 6 | 6 | 8 | 13th |
More information
- Contact: Fabian ten Kate, tel.: +31 (0)639605146
- See also the full publication in Economisch Statistische Berichten at www.esb.nu/olympisch
| Last modified: | 01 February 2023 4.21 p.m. |
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